Why Jeff Gordon's Chevrolet Will Win The 2015 Daytona 500

Jeff Gordon looks to take the #24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet into victory lane for his fourth Daytona 500 win. Photo from www.nascar.com

Sure, we know that Gordon is the sentimental pick for this year’s Daytona win. Announcing his retirement from full-time racing for a championship was a stroke of genius for the racer and the team. Unlike the year that Richard Petty spent going around the circuit collecting retirement gifts without the remote possibility of actually winning a race, Gordon is still a contender, as demonstrated by winning the pole for this year’s event.

Let’s break it down by the numbers and past history. First, a woman has never won the race which makes Danica Patrick’s chances of parking in victory lane a distant one. Likewise with Ryan Blaney and Ty Dillon. Both are making their first appearance in the great race and only Lee Petty, who won the inaugural Daytona 500, and Trevor Bayne, 2011 Daytona 500 champion, have won the Daytona 500 in their first appearance. That leaves us with 40 other drivers.

The odds don’t favor Denny Hamlin or Danica Patrick this year. Photo from www.nascar.com

A driver has won back-to-back Daytona 500s only three times. Richard Petty did the feat in 1973 & 1974, Cale Yarborough pulled it off in 1983 & 84 and Sterling Marlin duplicated it in 1994 & 1995. Don’t bet on Dale Jr. to write his name in the history books as the 2015 winner because the odds are against it. No driver has ever won the event from the last four starting spots. This takes A.J. Allmendinger, Casey Mears, Denny Hamlin and Bobby Labonte out of consideration. Down to 35 drivers left.

In 57 previous Daytona 500s, only five reigning NASCAR Sprint Cup Series champions have gone on to win the Daytona 500 the following season: Lee Petty (1959), Richard Petty (1973), Cale Yarborough (1977), Jeff Gordon (1999) and Dale Jarrett (2000). Odds don’t favor Kevin Harvick to become the sixth.

27 of the 56 previous Daytona 500s (48.2%), the winner has come from a top five starting position. This opens up the odds for Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. The fifth driver in the top five starting positions is Dale Earnhardt Jr., who won last year and is bitten by the failure to repeat bug.

Despite winning the first duel race at Daytona, and having a fast car, Dale Jr. is not favored by the odds to win this year’s Daytona 500. Photo from www.nascar.com

Chevrolets have won 23 times, Ford has 13 wins, Plymouth and Dodge have four each, Mercury, Oldsmobile, Pontiac and Buick all have three wins. This gives the two Chevrolet drivers in the front row higher odds. Joey Logano’s Ford and Kyle Busch’s Toyota are not favored by past history.

This leaves the two Hendrick Motorsports cars in the front row as the favored drivers to take home the grand prize. Drivers have won from the pole position eight times, whereas drivers from the second starting spot have won seven Daytona 500s.

This certainly puts a target on Jeff Gordon’s back, but the odds favor the #24 to take home his fourth Daytona 500 victory and second win from the pole position.

2015 Daytona 500 Starting Grid