Can Dale Earnhardt Jr Win The Sprint Cup Championship?

With NASCAR’s new chase-for-the-cup format, Earnhardt Jr enters the final ten races seeded in third place, with three wins on the year. Many see this as his best opportunity to win the season championship, a task his father accomplished seven-times. The question on everyone’s mind is: “Can Dale Jr do it this year?”

Dale Earnhardt Jr. leads Kyle Busch during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway on September 6, 2014 in Richmond, Virginia. Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images Date: Sep 06, 2014

Let’s take a look at this year’s chase format, the tracks that are involved in the final 10 races, and Earnhardt’s past record at those tracks compared to the other drivers in the chase.

The first round of three races features all 16-chase drivers competing at Chicagoland Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Dover International Speedway. In 13 races at the track since July 15, 2001, Earnhardt has only failed to finish the race twice. The bad news is: his average at the track is a 21st place finish. With New Hampshire and Dover the next two up, his stats don’t improve all that much. His competition struggles as much at these intermediate tracks as he does though, and Earnhardt should make it to the next round easily.

Projected chase drivers making it to the next round: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Brad Keselowski, Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Ryan Newman, Carl Edwards and Joey Logano.

Jimmie Johnson signs autographs during practice for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway on May 3, 2013 in Talladega, Alabama. Credit: Jared Wickerham/Getty Images Date: May 03, 2013

The next series of tracks for the “Contender” round include Kansas Speedway, Charlotte Motor Speedway and Talledega Superspeedway. Earnhardt has always done well on the super speedway tracks, so this round could help propel him on to the title. Gordon, Johnson and several others expect to do well in this round but the great unknown of the super speedways, “the big one,” could be a game-changer at any moment.

Project to move to the next round: Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon.

Matt Kenseth practices for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway on September 5, 2014 in Richmond, Virginia. Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images Date: Sep 05, 2014

The process of narrowing down to the final four goes through Martinsville Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Phoenix International Speedway. Short tracks, like Martinsville, have been dependable for Earnhardt in the Sprint Cup series. With an average finish of 11th in the last five races, Earnhardt should hold his own here. Texas and Phoenix are going to be the challenge, and the make or break, for the driver and the team. Texas has not been a great track for the #88 team. Their average finish has been 18th in the last five races. If they are able to finish in the top 10 at Texas, and continue with the top ten finishes at Phoenix, they will advance.

Projected to move into the final four: Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick and Kasey Kahne. Despite winning the most races in the regular season, Brad Keselowski finds himself on the outside looking in, finishing in fifth. Dale Earnhardt Jr finds himself out of the top four in sixth place. Veteran driver Jeff Gordon falls short in the final ten races after a great season. Carl Edwards finishes in eighth place in his final year with Roush Racing.

Based on recent history, our projection for the 2014 Sprint Cup Champion is Chevy driver Kevin Harvick.

We used the last five years of statistics with some simple formulas to project this year’s finishing order. A heavier weight was placed on the last two years of driver’s performances at the tracks represented in the final ten races. There is no way to predict bad luck, crashes and DNFs, but given the most recent results from each team, we predict Chevy driver Kevin Harvick as the 2014 Sprint Cup Champion. Matt Kenseth takes home second, Jimmie Johnson finishes in third with Kasey Kahn pulling out a strong fourth place.

We are interested to hear what you think of our projections and which driver you think will take home the cup. Please leave us a response in the comments below.